You Don't Know What You Don't Know

Psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger have repeatedly shown that people who aren't good at something often overestimate their performance - PubMed(Unskilled and Unaware of It) [1]. And people who ARE good at something underestimate their performance. This seems counter-intuitive, but we all know examples of this already. For example, more than 80% of drivers think they are above average - Modern Driver [2]. Or maybe you have seen contestants on American Idol who think they are really good singers, but they aren't.



This phenomenon is now known as the Dunning Kruger effect (D-K), but it has long been recognized, just lacking the research and the catchy name. Consider this quote from Alexander Pope in 1709. The Wiki page even references Dunning Kruger.

A little learning (knowledge) is a dangerous thing - Wikipedia(Essay_on_Criticism) [3]. 

Or this observation from Charles Darwin. Some may find irony here.

Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge -  BrainyQuote [4].

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D-K happens because our brain is hiding its own blind spots from us. When people don't get it, they don't realize they don't get it, that is you don't know what you don't know. The skill you need to evaluate your performance is the very skill you lack to actually perform well.

The maddening part is that D-K happens to all of us. We can't be expert in everything. "Not knowing the scope of your own ignorance is part of the human condition" - Vox(D-K_Explained) [5]. When we learn something new, we underestimate how much there is to know about a subject, so we assume we have nearly mastered it, and overestimate our performance. When we study something deeply, we realize how much we don't know, so we underestimate our performance.

Hold My Ladder

Let me share one of  my own D-K experiences, involving painting (walls, not portraits). I know a few tricks about painting, things like keeping a wet edge, cutting in, how to quickly spread paint, etc. I thought I was pretty good at it. After my stroke, when I could no longer work over my head, we wanted our living room (which has high ceilings) painted. We hired a guy. I watched him paint. I realized my mediocrity. He painted that ceiling in a couple hours. It would have taken me two days. He had the right tools, knew the right techniques, and painted faster and better than I ever could, pre-stroke that is.




I think the ultimate example of D-K is Mother Eve in the Garden of Eden. She got a tiny bit of (mis)information, and made a decision to overrule God Himself. Did she think that she knew better than her Creator?

The poor performers fall victim to thinking "how hard can it be?" As in "Nobody knew health care could be so complicated".

Hypothetical Dunning Kruger Effect - Independent(William Poundstone) [6]

The graph above depicts the hypothetical Dunning-Kruger effect, plotting confidence against competence. It shows that absolute beginners more accurately evaluate themselves, that is they recognize that they are incompetent. Then, at a certain skill level, people begin to overestimate their competence. This graph was published by William Poundstone, not by Dunning and Kruger however. The D-K paper included four graphs, all of them similar to the one at right, which plots perception versus ability to recognize humor. Note the graph does not go to zero, so it really says nothing about absolute beginners, though a recent study by Dunning shows "beginners don’t start out falling prey to the Dunning-Kruger effect, but they get there real quick" - Vox(D-K_Explained) [7], PubMed [8]. Visit Graph Paper Diaries [9] to see the original D-K graphs for logic and grammar comprehension.


I think one has to distinguish between the D-K effect and arrogance. The D-K effect can be attributed to ignorance. Beginners are simply unaware of how much there is to know about a topic consequently overestimate how much they know about it. But there are people who offer opinions about things they know little about; often wrong, but never in doubt. Everyone falls prey to D-K, but the arrogant more so.

Enter Politics

Whether you're a voter or a politician, the Dunning Kruger effect is in play. Ill informed voters appear to be extremely overconfident in their political knowledge, but also strong in their opinions - Science Trends [10],  PsyPost(Study) [11].  In short, beware the loudest and most confident voices on social media. Politicians propose solutions that can't possibly work, but they are unaware of the costs and consequences of their solutions. I think this is especially true of campaign promises. Some politicians are sadly uninformed about science, technology, economics, history, etc., but make laws about these  very subjects that they don't understand, and be very vocal about it.

One problem for voters is that a truly knowledgeable candidate will likely underestimate his own solutions or his ability to govern. He may even appear to doubt himself. Who is going to vote for that person? People want confident leaders, and D-K says that those people are often the least qualified.

Enter Religion

In a sense, religion deals with "what we don't know", the very realm of the unknown.  We look to religion to give us the answers to life's biggest questions. There are things we simply cannot know from human physical experience, and we expect religion to know the "unknowable". But that leaves huge opportunities for not only D-K, but fraud as well. But to reuse an old joke, "never attribute to fraud what can adequately be explained by D-K" - Hanlon's Razor [12].

How are we supposed to approach it? Who do we believe?  If you don't know what you don't know, can you know what you do know? Personally, I believe the Bible, though I recognize that leaves out atheists and a lot of people who believe in other "sacred texts". I will confine my remarks to Bible believers. But still, Bible believers are split into about 40,000 denominations, they can't all be right. While some may be frauds, I think most are displaying D-K. Consider the D-K preacher, one who can take take a small part of the Bible, make a compelling sermon out of it, yet actually misunderstand the passage. The preacher has the added challenge of wanting to appear confident about the unknowable. Consider the D-K member, one who hasn't read much of the Bible, yet has great confidence they know the truth, or at least their church leaders do. The tendency is to look down on everyone outside one's own faith. Atheists apply D-K to Christians Atheist Forum [13], and Christians apply D-K to atheists  Phillip Jensen [14]. And I would guess that each denomination applies D-K to other denominations as well.

Message Of Hope

Contrary to what Mulder always said, the truth is not "out there" - Wikipedia(X_Files) [15]. And contrary to what Darth Vader said, the truth is not "in here", that is, you can't search your feelings for the truth - Wikiquote(The Empire Strikes Back) [16]. Our feelings are not the arbiters of truth. Truth is in the pages of the Bible, "Sanctify them in the truth; Your word is truth" - John 17:17. But with all the misinformation and disinformation about the Bible "out there", one needs a guide - like the Ethiopian eunuch said to Philip.

Acts 8:30 Philip ran up and heard him reading Isaiah the prophet, and said, “Do you understand what you are reading?” 31 And he said, “Well, how could I, unless someone guides me?”

That guide is available. I invite you to read some of these publications from the United Church of God [17]. This is only a sampling of what is available.

Why are we here? What is our place in the universe? What is the purpose of life? The questions have been asked for centuries. But they all revolve around what is perhaps the most fundamental question of all: Does God exist?

What is your destiny? Why do you exist? Why were you born? Is there a reason, a purpose, for human life? These questions have baffled the greatest thinkers and philosophers down through the ages.  We ponder the meaning of life.  In the pages that follow, we will explore this, one of the greatest of all mysteries.

The Bible is the world's most popular book, but at the same time the most misunderstood! The Bible continues to be printed more than any other book and is available in more than 2,000 languages. It has helped form the basis for Western society and has shaped much of its religious, economic and social outlook.

The Bible itself reveals ways to better grasp its message to mankind. Throughout its pages are principles that, when applied, can help your comprehension. Let’s now explore a number of important keys that will help open up this Book of books to your understanding.

Why should there be such confusion about one of the Ten Commandments that God gave to mankind? Why is there such controversy and confusion over this one commandment when most people, including religious leaders and their churches, have little quarrel with the other nine? You don’t have to look far to discover the answers to these questions. They can be found in the pages of the Bible and history. And we address these basic questions in this booklet.

Prophecy is an integral part of the Bible, God’s inspired revelation to mankind. Through it God reveals Himself, His plan for humanity and why we are here. When properly understood, the Bible speaks with a clear, consistent and reliable message that is just as appropriate for us as it was for the people of ancient Israel.




Why should you believe me? I don't have a degree from a seminary. I'm not an evangelist, and I don't play one on TV. Maybe I'm exhibiting Dunning-Kruger. Well, I'm not a beginner, I've been studying the Bible for over 40 years. God helped me make big changes in my life long ago. I'm not saying I am perfect, but I'm not the man I was in my 20's. People who knew me then would probably be surprised that I write a blog about Bible topics. You can read my blog for yourself, (65 articles as of June 2019), see the INDEX or the list on the right - you can see much of what I believe.

As far as beliefs go, I'm pretty certain about some, less so about others. For examples, I'm certain God exists; the Bible is the word of God; that He expects us to keep the Ten Commandments, including the Sabbath; that Jesus is the Messiah, and He is coming back, soon; Jesus started His church and it is still here (this is not meant to be an exhaustive  list of beliefs I am certain about, just a few examples). If a church teaches the Ten Commandments are done away, or the Sabbath has been changed to Sunday, or keeps Christmas and Easter, that church contradicts the Bible. On the other hand, there are things that I don't fully understand, despite my best efforts, things I may have opinions about, even strong opinions, but can't claim certainty, things like the exact nature of God, God's name, when exactly will Christ return, God of the Old Testament, Nephilim, church government, voting, and more. On the other hand, there are parts of the Bible that are not entirely clear, that people legitimately debate and argue about. Sometimes I think there isn't a verse that people don't argue about. Then I remember what Mark Twain said "It ain't those parts of the Bible that I can't understand that bother me, it is the parts that I do understand" - Brainy Quote [18]. At least I have reached the point where I realize I have SO much more to learn.

Overcoming the Dunning Kruger Effect

Is it possible to avoid D-K effect? The research says no because there are always subjects we are not experts at, which means areas we are ignorant and can't accurately assess our performance. But one key is humility - Vox(Intellectual_Humility) [19]. At least, one doesn't have to cross the line from ignorance to arrogance. "everyone among you not to think more highly of himself than he ought to think" - Rom 12:3. Life Lessons [20] offers more tips on how to overcome D-K.

Discussion questions

Can you think of "Christian" teachings that contradict the Bible?
Do you have a D-K story?

References

1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10626367/
2. http://moderndriver.org/driving-and-the-dunning-kruger-effect/
3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Essay_on_Criticism
4. https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/charles_darwin_141357
5. https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/1/31/18200497/dunning-kruger-effect-explained-trump
6. https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/books/features/how-meryl-streep-showed-us-why-the-least-able-have-no-idea-of-their-own-incompetence-a7205316.html
7. https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/1/31/18200497/dunning-kruger-effect-explained-trump
8. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29094960
9. https://graphpaperdiaries.com/2017/08/20/the-real-dunning-kruger-graph/
10. https://sciencetrends.com/study-finds-that-those-who-claim-to-know-more-about-politics-actually-know-less/
11. https://www.psypost.org/2018/04/study-people-less-political-knowledge-think-know-lot-politics-51062
12. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor
13. https://atheistforums.org/thread-58139.html
14. https://phillipjensen.com/new-atheists-and-the-dunning-kruger-effect/
15. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_X-Files
16. https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/The_Empire_Strikes_Back
17. https://www.ucg.org/bible-study-tools/booklets
18. https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/mark_twain_153875
19. https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/1/4/17989224/intellectual-humility-explained-psychology-replication
20. https://lifelessons.co/personal-development/howtogetsmarterpart4/

Unmasked

In the West, masks are mostly worn for protection, think of dust masks, ski masks, or surgical masks. But sometimes masks are worn to hide the identity of the wearer. Consider this definition of mask  from Encyclopedia Britannica [1].

Mask, a form of disguise or concealment usually worn over or in front of the face to hide the identity of a person and by its own features to establish another being. This essential characteristic of hiding and revealing personalities or moods is common to all masks.

Masks generally are worn with a costume, often so extensive that it entirely covers the body and obscures the wearer’s recognizable features. Fundamentally the costume completes the new identity represented by the mask.

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Origin Of Masks

Where did this practice of wearing masks come from? It appears that the origin of masks is in religious rites and ceremonies. Again from Encyclopedia Britannica [1].

African Tribal Masks

Many masks are primarily associated with ceremonies that have religious and social significance or are concerned with funerary customs, fertility rites, or the curing of sickness.

The mask, therefore, most often functions as a means of contact with various spirit powers, thereby protecting against the unknown forces of the universe by prevailing upon their potential beneficence in all matters relative to life.

In certain cultures, masks are worn to get in touch with the spirit world. This has been the case around the world, with Africa being the most well known, because African masks are sold as collectible art in the West. In order to contact the spirit world, the mask maker and the mask wearer must follow careful rules. The mask wearer is considered to be in direct association with the mask's spirit force, and can lose his own identity, assuming the identity of the mask, possibly undergoing a psychic change, even a trance. Some masks do represent evil spirits. Masks are worn in many religious ceremonies often in an attempt to "impersonate a supernatural power" - Masks: Reflections of Culture and Religion [2]. So in religious ceremonies involving masks, the mask and the wearer either represents a good spirit or an evil spirit.

Identity Masks

In the West, identity masks are only used at Halloween, Mardi Gras, or costume parties. The mask allows the wearer anonymity to release inhibitions. In other words, the mask wearer feels free to behave as they really want to, to do things under the cloak of anonymity. I'm pretty sure this doesn't bring out the virtue in people. Their real self is unmasked while wearing a mask. “A mask is not to disguise who you are but to show who you really are.” - Chloe Thurlow [3].



Of course, masks do not have to be physical. Many cultures have the mask of alcohol or other drugs, which lower inhibitions, that is unmasking the real self. Many people use a mask of anger to hide fear, weakness, shame, or embarassment - Psychology In Everyday Life [4]. Humor can also be used a a mask - Masking Depression With Humor [5]. In religion, tradition can be a mask - Behind the Mask of Religious Traditions [6]. Masks can work two ways, hiding the real self or revealing the real self, or perhaps who the wearer wants to be.

Masks and the Theater

Masks became a device of the theater in almost all cultures.

The mask as a device for theatre first emerged in Western civilization from the religious practices of ancient Greece.

Heavily coiffured and of a size to enlarge the actor’s presence, the Greek mask seems to have been designed to throw the voice by means of a built-in megaphone device and, by exaggeration of the features, to make clear at a distance the precise nature of the character. Moreover, their use made it possible for the Greek actors—who were limited by convention to three speakers for each tragedy—to impersonate a number of different characters during the play simply by changing masks and costumes.  Encyclopedia Britannica [1]


What were those Greek actors called? Hypokrites, from which we get the English word hypocrite.

Tragedy And Comedy Masks

The word hypocrite ultimately came into English from the Greek word hypokrites, which means “an actor” or “a stage player.” The Greek word itself is a compound noun: it’s made up of two Greek words that literally translate as “an interpreter from underneath.” That bizarre compound makes more sense when you know that the actors in ancient Greek theater wore large masks to mark which character they were playing, and so they interpreted the story from underneath their masks.

It took a surprisingly long time for hypocrite to gain its more general meaning that we use today: “a person who acts in contradiction to his or her stated beliefs or feelings.”  - Merriam Webster [7]

Masks and the Bible 

Does the Bible have anything to say about masks? Indirectly. It does talk about hypocrites. In Matthew 23 alone, Jesus addresses the scribes and Pharisees seven times as hypocrites, "But woe to you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites, ..." - Matt 23:13,14,15,23,25,27,29. This is the Greek word hypokritai, the same word as the stage players of Greek theater. The scribes and Pharisees put on masks to appear righteous, not physical masks like other religions, but still a persona, Latin for "false face" - Masks: Reflections of Culture and Religion [2]. "So you, too, outwardly appear righteous to men, but inwardly you are full of hypocrisy and lawlessness." - Matt 23:28.

Putting on a mask to portray or become an evil spirit is simply bad.
Putting on a mask to appear righteous is also bad.

Portraying an evil spirit allows the evil side of a person to come out and be revealed.

Pretending righteousness allows a person to hide their evil side. This is the warning of  Matt 7:15 “Beware of the false prophets, who come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly are ravenous wolves. 16 You will know them by their fruits." Sounds like a mask, a whole costume if you will. And this warning in 2Cor 11:14 "No wonder, for even Satan disguises himself as an angel of light." But remember, you will know them by their fruits, don't just listen to their words - 4 Ways to Identify a Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing [8].




Are masks mentioned in the Old Testament? Possibly. In the story of the Golden Calf (Exodus 32), the people don't know what happened to Moses, they panic, and want a replacement for Moses, a replacement that isn't human and can serve as an intermediary between the people and God Himself. They had their chance to see and hear God directly at Mount Sinai, but they chose to have an intermediary instead.

Exod 32:1 Now when the people saw that Moses delayed to come down from the mountain, the people assembled about Aaron and said to him, "Come, make us a god [elohim] who will go before us; as for this Moses, the man who brought us up from the land of Egypt, we do not know what has become of him.

Aaron fashions a golden calf. Rabbi David Fohrman [9] argues that "egel maseka" in Hebrew could be translated as molten calf or calf mask. The people wanted an intermediary that could survive a face to face encounter with God, like Moses did. The calf mask was a shield to protect them. Only it doesn't work that way, the mask is a perversion of the relationship with God, which must actually be face to face. The irony is that Moses ends up being the one who has to wear a veil (masveh) when talking to the people. Moses face shone after forty days on the mountain with God, and when he came down, the people were afraid of him, so he wore a veil, not because he wanted to hide his identity. It's not clear to me how long Moses wore the veil, perhaps for the entire 40 years Israel wandered in the desert.


[paragraph added Mar 21, 2018]

I missed an important connection between masks and the commandment that says - "You shall not take the name of the LORD your God in vain, for the LORD will not leave him unpunished who takes His name in vain" - Exodus 20:7. A reader commented that this verse is really talking about hypocrisy, that is taking God's name in vain is more than using swear words. He paraphrased it like this "You shall not just act like you are one of God's people; for the LORD will not hold him guiltless that bears his name in vain." Taking or bearing God's name has to be sincere, not a mask worn for the praise of men.

Masks and the Christian

Anyone who desires to live a moral life, anyone who calls on the name of the Lord, ie. a Christian, is at risk for hypocrisy. I have to think that no one actively seeks out evil deliberately and consciously, but that evil is a result of "Every way of a man is right in his own eyes" - Prov 21:2. That is to say, everyone decides for themselves what is right and wrong. But Christians have given up that right to decide for themselves. The problem is our own weaknesses and habits. Everyone sins, and falls into hypocrisy, "a person who acts in contradiction to his or her stated beliefs or feelings.” Do we put the mask on and pretend the sin didn't happen, or do we approach God face to face (because He knows anyway), and repent, that is, turn away from our sin, and bring forth fruit in keeping with our repentance?

God hath given you one face and you make yourselves another. - William Shakespeare, Hamlet

References

1. https://www.britannica.com/art/mask-face-covering
2. https://www.dollsofindia.com/us/library/mask/
3. https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/tag/mask
4. http://www.psychologyineverydaylife.net/2012/05/29/masks-of-anger-the-fears-that-your-anger-may-be-hiding
5. http://docdreyfus.com/psychologically-speaking/masking-depression-with-humor/
6. https://www.amazon.com/Behind-Mask-Religious-Traditions-Briggs-ebook/dp/B001R4BP7A
7. https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hypocrisy
8. https://faithinthenews.com/4-ways-to-identify-a-wolf-in-sheeps-clothing/
9. https://www.alephbeta.org/